Tag: polls

Asking the wrong questions: polling and Obamacare

Asking the wrong questions: polling and Obamacare

Posted on by Jack

There has been quite a bit in the news lately about public opposition to the Affordable Care Act (aka ObamaCare). It seems that most recent polls indicate most are opposed (see http://www.realclearpolitics.com/).

But are the polls asking the right question? It seems to me you could oppose the law because you think it goes too far. Or you could oppose the law because it doesn’t go far enough.

Or you could generally agree with the aims law and disagree with parts. (And either support the law or not.)

You could want total repeal or perhaps just a modification of what you don’t like. You could want total repeal and replaced with no reform at all. Or you could want it repealed and replaced with a single payer system or another system.

This is really too complicated to just look at one number as a gauge of public opinion.

Another question would be does public opinion really reflect problems in the law or just how effective one side or the other is in presenting the case to the public.

Are polls biased in favor of Obama?

Are polls biased in favor of Obama?

Posted on by Jack

Several new polls show President Obama with a wide lead in many swing-states. Some say there is a bias.

Of course, the polls could be wrong. But it seems unlikely that the people who do the polls would show a deliberate bias as this would tend to destroy any credibility in the long-run.

But there could be all sorts of unintentional bias. Younger voters tend to have cell phone rather than landlines and so might not get the call. I have a landline but tend to look at my caller-ID and not pick up calls from numbers I don’t recognize and that don’t attempt to leave a message. Some who indicate they are probable voters might not actually vote.

There are probably quite a few other reasons. But the one that came to mind is voter suppression as a consequence of the Voter ID laws mainly sponsored by Republican legislatures. This seems to be a factor here in Pennsylvania.